One of the most important indirect economic consequences of dam failure (DF) is decrease the employment of agricultural sector (EOAS) downstream of the dam, its accurate estimation is difficult due to multi-layer effects of (DF). The main purpose of this study is to predict rate of employment by considering qualitative and quantitative impacts of DF by using dummy variable (DV) regression models technique in estimating income functions (IF) and produc-tion of crops functions (PFs) in the AS and using the functions in linear programming model (LPM) for optimal allocation of labour. The results of model showed that with 36% decrease in accessible water resource after DF, proportionate with the decreasing trend, the level of labour employment has decreased about 23% in downstream area of the dam. The results of this research have good conformity with former findings such as simulation method for failure embankment which is equal to 25%. So, combination of LPM with DV regression for predicting unemployment rate originated from DF and managing social and economic crisis in line with sustainable development is a realistic and accurate method.